The Changing Demographics of Florida’s Latino Electorate: Latino Party Affiliation and Voter Registration Rates in the State, Central Florida, and South Florida

Introduction: This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of Florida -- where the Latino electorate could very well determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: The Latino population of Florida soared between 1990 and 2014 according to the most recent census data for 2014 and currently comprises 25% of the state’s population and 19% of its electorate. Latinos in Florida had higher registration and voting rates than national averages among Latinos. In 2012 72% of Florida’s Latino electorate, potential voters who were citizens 18 years of age and older, were registered to vote compared with a national average of about 59%. CLACLS projects that about 75% of Florida’s Latino electorate will be registered to vote in the 2016 presidential election based on past rates of increase. CLACLS projects that about 64% of all eligible Latino voters will cast ballots in November 2016. The national average among Latinos has been about 48% in every presidential election since 1992. CLACLS projects that Latinos in Florida will account for 20% of all votes cast in Florida in November 2016 making them a decisive force in the outcome of the election in the state. Discussion: Pundits and political operatives would be wise to take notice of these trends. Florida is widely recognized as a key presidential swing state, but little attention has been given to the dramatic demographic transformation it has witnessed between 1990 and 2014. An examination of voter registration rolls reveals a clear shift away from the Republican Party since 2006, and this trend seems to be growing. For years, Florida’s Latino electorate was traditionally defined by the “Cuban vote.” But this is no longer the case. With the arrival of Puerto Ricans, Central Americans, and South Americans of various nationalities, the Cuban population has declined as a percentage of Florida’s total population, electorate, and voters. For the 2016 presidential election, over 70% of the state’s Latino electorate will be non-Cuban. In a close national election, Florida’s Latino voters could well determine who wins the White House in 2016

The Politics of Race and the Florida Gubernatorial Election of November 2018

Introduction: This report studies the voter registration rates in face of the new Florida Gubernatorial elections in November 2018. Methods:Using the latest voter registration data by race and party in Florida of July 30, 2018, this report provides an accurate statistical profile of the actual registered electorate. It also utilizes the U.S. Census Bureau’s data on the presidential election of 2016 and the November 2014 mid-term election, to indicate voter participation and voting rates by race and age. Results: While nearly 64% of eligible non-Hispanic white voters went to the polls and supported the Republican candidate for president in 2016 by 64% to 32%; only 50.5% of Florida’s African Americans voted. They supported the Democratic candidate by a margin of 84% to 8% according to exit polls. Finally, 54% of eligible Florida Latinos went to the polls in November 2016 and voted for the Democratic candidate by 64% to 32%. A critical factor in Florida and elsewhere is registration rates. Nearly 71% of the state’s non-Hispanic whites were registered to vote in 2016 compared to 55% of African-Americans, 62% of Hispanics and only 50.4% of the Asian population. Discussion: Had the voting rate been higher among Democratic constituencies, the result of the Florida presidential election 2016 would have been different. Mr. Gillum’s strategy is precisely to mobilize these potential Democratic voters while seeking to make history by becoming Florida’s first African-American governor. Moreover, raising the registration rate among large swaths of the African-American and Hispanic populations will in all likelihood translate into higher voting rates among these critical sectors of Democratic support. If this is to occur Mr. Gillum has a realistic possibility of winning the election

Research Note: Have Puerto Ricans Experienced Increased Voter Registration Rates in Florida Since the November 2016 Presidential Election?

This research note analyzes the demographic change of Puerto Ricans and Hispanics in Florida combined with voter registration rates using the Florida Department of State Voter Registration Reports from July 2018. Despite both populations growing in selected counties, which in turn has increased the voter registration rates for Hispanics in the State, there is no conclusive evidence that voter registration rates among Puerto RIcans experienced a significant rise between 2016 and 2018

The Geographical Distribution of the Latino Population of the New York City Metropolitan Area, 2018

Introduction: This report investigates where all Latinos lived in the New York City Metropolitan area, including the Northern Suburbs, Long Island, and selected New Jersey counties. The six largest Latino nationalities are mapped by census tract for a very precise visualization of the data. Methods: This report uses one-year sample data for 2018 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, and the 2014 – 2018 five-year sample data at the census-census tract level. The ACS dataset is reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota and is available at IPUMS USA (https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V10.0) and IPMS NHGIS (http://doi.org/10.18128/D050.V14.0). The five-year sample data from the ACS 2014-2018 has recently been released by IPUMS. However, this report was written prior to the release of these data. In this report ancestry is defined by the respondent’s self-reported ancestry and Latino group. Discussion: In 1960, 86% of all Latinos lived in New York City. Showing the same pattern as that of European immigrants in the late 19th and early 20th century, Latinos first settled in the City and then moved to the surrounding counties as economic conditions improved. By 2018, 50% of Latinos lived in the City and the rest in the neighboring areas, 26% in New Jersey contiguous counties close to the City; 13% in Northern Suburban counties including Fairfield County, Connecticut; and 11% in Long Island. The Puerto Rican population was the largest in all of the counties, although Dominicans accounted for the greatest share of the City’s Latino population. Mexicans, Colombians, Ecuadorians and Salvadorans were the next largest nationalities in that order

Could Latinos Choose the Next President? States in Which Latinos Could Determine the Margin of Victory in the 2016 Presidential Election

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of states in which the Latino electorate could determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: In Florida Latinos comprise a large share of the electorate and will be a decisive factor in victory—76% of Latinos are projected to register to vote in 2016 and 64% of eligible Latinos will likely vote. The data indicate that in states with small Latino populations, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Latino vote will be important if the races are close. It is unlikely that the Latino vote will be important in New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Discussion: Despite representing small numbers of the population in many states, the Latino electorate has the potential to be a deciding factor in a number of swing states in the 2016 presidential election. How important their role will be hinges on Latino voter registration and turn-out

The Latino Population of New York City, 1990 - 2015

This report is an update to the CLACLS report The Latino Population of New York City, 1990-2010 issued in November 2011. It uses the most current data from the U.S. Census Bureau\u27s 2015 American Community Survey released in October 2016. The report examines a wide range of social and economic variables tracing how these changed for Latinos in general within the City in comparison to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Asians. It also examines the changes within the five largest Latino nationalities in the City: Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Ecuadorians, and Colombians. There has been a definitive transformation in Latino New York\u27s population as without question, according to census data, the Dominican population has surpassed the Puerto Rican population to become New York City\u27s largest Latino national subgroup

The Dominican Population of the New York Metropolitan Region, 1970-2019

Introduction: This study focuses on the demographic and socioeconomic changes occurring within the Dominican population of the New York metropolitan area between 1970 and 2019. By 2019 Dominicans had become the largest Latino nationality in New York City having surpassed Puerto Ricans a decade earlier in sheer numbers. Methods: This report uses the American Community Survey PUMS (Public Use Microdata Series) data for all years released by the Census Bureau and reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa, (https://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtml). See Public Use Microdata Series Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2017. Census tract data depicted in maps were derived from Steven Manson, Jonathan Schroeder, David Van Riper, Tracy Kugler, and Steven Ruggles. IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 15.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS. Discussion: Among the region’s Dominican population there was a very significant and important increase in college graduation rates in each decade after 1980. By 2019 20% of all Dominican adults had attained a B.A. degree or higher rising from 1.4% in 1970. More significantly there was a huge disparity when nativity is examined. In 2019 nearly 35% of all Dominican adults who had been born in the U.S. had at least completed college compared with nearly 16% of Dominicans born in the Dominican Republic. Dominican households in the region experienced significant increases in real median household incomes over the period between 1980 and 2019 rising from $38,896 (in 2019 inflation-adjusted dollars) to$67,600. However, by 2019 64% of all Dominican households in the region were headed by women and they earned significantly lower median household income ($43,000) compared with male-headed households ($66,450). Unemployment rates among the Dominican population rose along with increased migration from 4.2% in 1970 to 10% in 1990. However, despite fluctuations thereafter, unemployment was at 4.6% in 2019. Dominicans increasingly became citizens. In 1980 about 38% were citizens, rising to 76% in 2019. Of these, 44% of all Dominican in the New York metro area were born in the U.S. and citizens by birth; 32% because of naturalization

Spouse and Unmarried Partner Choices Among Largest Latino Nationalities in the New York Metropolitan Region, 1980 – 2021

Introduction: This report examines the married and unmarried partner choices among the largest Latino nationalities in the New York metropolitan region by race/ethnicity and nationality among household heads by sex. Methods: This report uses the American Community Survey PUMS (Public Use Microdata Series) data for all years released by the Census Bureau and reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa, (https://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtml). See Public Use Microdata Series Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2020. Discussion: The longer a particular nationality lived in the region with increasing numbers of household heads born in the U.S. rather than in their countries of origin, the greater the frequency of marrying or partnering with other Latinos or non-Hispanic whites rather than within their nationalities. More women made these choices than men within each national sub-group. Puerto Ricans offer the most extreme example of this pattern, followed by Dominicans and, surprisingly, Colombians. Mexicans and Ecuadorians present an opposite pattern

The 2018 Mid-Term Election: Estimated Voter Participation Rates by Race and Age in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas

Introduction: The razor thin margins separating the Democratic and Republican candidates for senator and governor in Florida; in the Georgia governor’s race; in the senatorial election in Arizona; and the strong showing by Beto O’Rourke in the senatorial race in Texas, mask the extraordinary problems faced by the Democratic Party as it turns to the presidential election scheduled for November 2020. Methods: This study highlights these problems by examining the turnout rates by race/ethnicity and age in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas using 2017 IPUMS data with The New York Times and CNN Exit polls for each state. Results: In each of these state elections Democratic‐leaning demographic constituencies – African Americans, Latinos, and young voters between 18 and 29 years of age – voted at significantly lower rates than the principal Republican constituencies, older non‐Hispanic white men and women. In other words, in each state voting rates by older non‐Hispanic whites dwarfed those of younger people, Latinos, and African Americans and this is what accounted for close elections. Discussion: The challenge facing the Democratic Party is not to attract the right‐wing supporters of the current President and his Republican Party enablers. It is to find strategies to register Democratic demographic constituents and get them to the polls in November 2020

Demographic and Socioeconomic Transformations Among the Mexican-Origin Population of New York City, 1990-2017

Introduction: The Mexican-origin population was the fastest growing Latino national subgroup in New York City between 1990 and 2015, increasing from about 58,000 to 377,000 people.The growth rate was so above and beyond the rates of expansion among other Latino nationalities, that it seemed as if by 2030 Mexicans would surpass Dominicans and Puerto Ricans to become the largest Latino nationality in the City. However, very quickly after 2015, Mexicans began to leave the City and population contracted to about 323,000 in 2017. Methods: All of the data in this report were derived from the raw data files released by the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Surveys for 1990, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2017 organized and released by IPUMS USA at the University of Minnesota. See Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, Erin Meyer, Jose Pacas, and Matthew Sobek. IPUMS USA: Version 9.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2019. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V9.0. The term ‘Mexican’ is used at times to refer to all people of Mexican-origin whether born in Mexico or in the United States. Discussion: Foreign-born Mexicans stopped migrating to the City from Mexico or from other areas of the United States and there was an apparent out migration of Mexican families including children born in the U.S. About a third of all Mexicans lived in Brooklyn in 1990 and this was stable to 2017. Educational attainment levels among the Mexican community suggest hope for upward social mobility in the future. Mexican households earned median incomes by 2017 of $54,000 which was slightly higher than Puerto Ricans and Dominicans but much lower than Ecuadorans and Colombians, the five largest Latino nationalities in the City. However, it is unfortunate to note that Mexicans had the highest overall poverty rate among Latino New Yorkers at 29% and the highest childhood poverty rate as well at 42% in 2017